Supply and Consumption Both Tighten, LME Copper Edges Down Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Friday, September 26, 2025
Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $10,438/mt, touched a high of $10,445/mt early in the session before fluctuating downward, approached a low of $10,241/mt near the close, and finally settled at $10,275.5/mt, down 0.43%, with trading volume reaching 42,000 lots and open interest at 296,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2511 contract opened higher with a gap, starting at 82,290 yuan/mt, touched a high of 83,080 yuan/mt early in the session before the price center moved downward, touched a low of 82,270 yuan/mt, then moved sideways and finally settled at 82,380 yuan/mt, up 0.27%, with trading volume reaching 107,000 lots and open interest at 233,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes] News:
(1) SLAM Exploration Ltd. (TSXV: SXL) announced that diamond drilling is underway at its Goodwin copper-nickel-cobalt project in the Bathurst mining camp, New Brunswick. The drill rig is currently at hole GW25-16 in the Granges mineralized zone. Previous hole GW24-02 intersected 64.9 meters of mineralization grading 0.73% copper, 0.64% nickel, and 0.05% cobalt. The new hole, located northeast of this intersection, aims to verify the potential eastward extension of the mineralized zone and test the polarizable anomaly beneath the zone.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On September 25, SMM #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2510 contract were reported at a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average price at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, down 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SMM #1 copper cathode prices ranged from 82,130 to 82,880 yuan/mt. In early trading, the front-month SHFE copper contract surged by over 2,500 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 82,160 yuan/mt during the morning session before continuing to rise, reaching a peak of 82,950 yuan/mt, nearly breaking the 83,000 yuan/mt mark. During the morning session, the intermonth spread contango was 40 to 10, and import losses for the front-month SHFE copper contract were around 1,000 yuan/mt. Copper prices hit a new high for the year and are unlikely to fall significantly in the short term, which is expected to significantly dampen downstream stocking sentiment. Intraday spot copper premiums/discounts in Shanghai did not decline significantly, and trading is expected to continue around small discounts tomorrow.
(2) Guangdong: On September 25, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract were reported at a discount of 20 yuan/mt to a premium of 100 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 60 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a discount of 40 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 82,385 yuan/mt, up 2,355 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 82,275 yuan/mt, up 2,345 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Overall, downstream buyers replenished cautiously amid the sharp rise in copper prices, spot premiums fell again, and overall trading activity was weak.
(3) Imported copper: On September 25, warrant prices were $48-58/mt, QP October, with the average price down $4/mt from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $46-70/mt, QP October, with the average price down $1/mt from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was $28-36/mt, QP October, with the average price down $2/mt from the previous trading day. Quotations refer to cargoes arriving in late September and early October.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on September 25, the futures closing price was 82,670 yuan/mt, up 2,650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was 30 yuan/mt, down 25 from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials rose 1,300 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 74,700-74,900 yuan/mt, up 1,300 from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 3,126 yuan/mt, up 1,247 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,420 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, copper prices surged significantly due to the impact of the Indonesian copper mine accident raising concerns about potential shortfalls in global copper ore supply. The price spread between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod quickly widened to 1,420 yuan/mt. End-user consumption enterprises, concerned about further copper price increases and combined with pre-National Day stockpiling demand, led many secondary copper rod enterprises to receive substantial orders from downstream, resulting in relatively active trading of secondary copper rod within the day.
(5) Inventory: On September 24, LME copper cathode inventory decreased by 350 mt to 144,425 mt; on September 25, SHFE warrant inventory increased by 243 mt to 27,662 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, market panic sentiment triggered by the sudden incident at Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine has not completely subsided. Simultaneously, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) held a meeting expressing firm opposition to "involutionary" competition within the copper smelting industry, intensifying market concerns about future supply and providing support for copper prices. Additionally, US Q2 GDP was significantly revised up to growth of 3.8%, a two-year high, and US initial jobless claims for the week came in at 218,000, lower than the forecast of 235,000. These data strengthened market expectations for US economic resilience, leading to a significant rise in the US dollar index, which weighed on copper prices. Fundamentally, supply side, imported cargoes maintained normal arrivals, while domestic cargo arrivals decreased, leading to a slight tightening of supply. Consumption side, high copper prices suppressed the downstream stockpiling pace, with demand mainly sustained by rigid needs. As of September 25, SMM spot copper inventory in mainstream areas decreased by 4,400 mt MoM to 140,100 mt. Overall, with a mixed macro picture and a fundamentally weak supply-demand dynamic, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating rangebound at high levels today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research or decision-making advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]